149 - Global temperatures

Will break new records in the coming years

Author

The Climate Mentor
June 6th, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

Heat is on

This summer will be the hottest one you have ever experienced.

Yet.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), that scenario might not be far off.

With human-driven climate change accelerating, scientists now estimate an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will break existing global temperature records.

The urgency is palpable: are we prepared to navigate the economic, environmental, and societal challenges that come with a rapidly warming planet?

Four panels showing ensemble forecasts and probability predictions for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) relative to the 1991–2020 period. The top row depicts the forecast for 2025, while the bottom row shows the forecast for 2025–2029. The left column illustrates ensemble mean streamfunction anomalies in Sverdrups (Sv), with blue areas indicating weaker than average AMOC and red areas indicating stronger than average. The right column presents the probability of a stronger than average AMOC, with values ranging from 0 to 1. As this is an uncalibrated two-category forecast, the probability for below average AMOC is one minus the probability shown in the right column

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Forecast (2025 & 2025–2029)

1.5°C is no longer a ceiling 

The WMO’s latest climate update paints a sobering picture.

Analysts project that between now and 2029, there’s an 86% probability that at least one year will exceed the critical 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

This is not a theoretical milestone: the impacts are real and immediate.

Already, global sea levels are rising at twice the pace seen in the 20th century, while record-breaking heat waves threaten human health and agriculture alike.

A separate analysis from Climate Central highlights that extreme heat events, fueled by this warming, could become the “new normal” in places like Southern Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, with direct consequences for tourism, agriculture, and labor productivity.

A set of eight maps showing the ensemble mean forecast (left column) and the probability of above-average sea ice (right column) for both March and September during the 2025–2029 period. The maps depict the Arctic and Antarctic regions with color gradients indicating anomalies from the 1991–2020 average (ranging from -12% to +12%) and probabilities from 0.1 to 0.9. The ensemble mean forecast shows widespread declines in sea ice extent, especially in the Arctic, while the probability maps highlight regions with a high chance of lower-than-average sea ice. These visuals underscore the ongoing impacts of climate change on polar regions and the broader Earth system.

Projected sea ice anomalies and probabilities (2025–2029)

Risks, returns, and the path forward

So what does this mean for investors and policymakers? A world that consistently surpasses previous heat records is a world where climate risk is no longer hypothetical—it’s a material financial reality.

Insurance companies are already reporting increased claims from heat-related damages, with premiums set to rise by as much as 20% in vulnerable regions.

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