Kudos
It has been some time that I did not talk about CDR (carbon deoxide removal).
As an interesting report was published in the last days, I wanted to share some insights of it, as I think it's one of the most comprehensive assessments of CDR produced for a single country.
Italy's Potential to Deploy CDR at Scale and Speed, was released in April 2026 by B3 Carbon in partnership with Carbon Gap: it uses a bottom-up methodology to map Italy's realistic pathways to climate neutrality by 2050.
If you follow carbon markets, climate policy, or green investing in Europe, this is essential reading.
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Approaches — From Land to Deep Ocean
Some numbers
Italy's theoretical maximum carbon removal potential is estimated at 233 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2050—more than enough to offset the country's projected residual emissions of 68–100 MtCO₂/year by mid-century (as per Italy's Long-Term Strategy, LTS 2021). But theory and reality are two different things.
The report models three realistic scenarios:
Conservative scenario: Italy reaches only ~53 MtCO₂/year of total carbon sinks by 2050 - insufficient for net-zero. This path is characterized by slow permitting, fragmented governance, weak CAP implementation, and limited public acceptance of engineered CDR solutions.
Reference scenario: ~104 MtCO₂/year by 2050 - enough to close the gap, but only if EU regulations like the Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) are implemented consistently and CO₂ storage infrastructure expands beyond the Ravenna CCS Hub.
Ambitious scenario: ~139 MtCO₂/year by 2050 — putting Italy into net-negative territory, requiring full mobilisation of geological storage, aggressive CAP eco-scheme deployment, and broad social acceptance of both nature-based and engineered removal methods.
The single biggest bottleneck across all scenarios?
Geological CO₂ storage capacity.
Even with abundant renewable electricity and waste heat available, Italy cannot scale BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage) or DACCS (Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage) without developing new injection sites. The Ravenna CCS Hub—currently the only operational large-scale storage facility in Italy, with a pilot injecting 25,000 tonnes/year since 2024—is a start but far from sufficient on its own.
Italy's realistic CDR potentials across Conservative, Reference and Ambitious scenarios in 2050
🌿 Opportunities, Investment & what needs to Change
Land and agriculture are Italy's most immediate CDR lever, accounting for at least half of total carbon removals across all scenarios. Cropland management, agroforestry, and forest restoration could collectively deliver tens of millions of tonnes of CO₂ removed per year by 2050 - and these happen to be the methods citizens trust most.
The report also functions as a capital deployment roadmap.
Implementing the reference scenario would cost €0.8–3 billion/year by 2030, rising to €4–15 billion/year by 2050—roughly 1% of Italy's GDP, comparable to current fossil fuel subsidy spending.
Priority investment areas include BECCS retrofits near the Po Valley and Adriatic coast, biochar scale-up under the new EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework, new CO₂ storage hubs beyond Ravenna, and carbon farming schemes now eligible for EU certification.
Market appetite is already visible: a 2024 ENI-Snam survey recorded interest from 61 companies, totalling over 34 MtCO₂/year of potential CCS demand by 2040.
The biggest barrier, however, is governance.
Italy has no national CDR strategy, no binding targets for engineered removals, and fragmented permitting that delays projects by years.
Italy's Potential to Deploy CDR at Scale and Speed is freely available at carbongap.org.
Ready to dive into sustainable investing?
Subscribe to The Climate Mentor today to get updates on the latest trends, tips, and news on climate change.
Enjoy the newsletter? Please forward this to a friend 👥
It only takes 15 seconds. Making this took me 10 hours⌚
